This study examines the dynamics of regional import flows in the Bukhara region through econometric and statistical modeling, employing an ARIMA regression framework. Using quarterly data with 36 observations, the research identifies both deterministic and stochastic components of import dynamics. The ARIMA(4,0,1) model reveals that imports are driven by a strong deterministic upward trend, with limited autoregressive persistence and significant short-term moving average adjustments. Diagnostic tests, including the Portmanteau Q-statistic, confirm that residuals behave as white noise, thereby validating the model’s adequacy. The findings highlight that while structural factors underpin the long-term growth of imports, short-term policy shocks and market adjustments play a significant role in shaping quarterly fluctuations.

Regional imports, ARIMA model, Bukhara region

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